Ocean-atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan

Abstract In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify associations between regional change global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic (AO), North (NAO), El Niño–Southern (ENSO), Pacific Decadal (PDO), Tropical Northern Index (TNA), Pacific/North American (PNA), Pattern (NP), Western (WP), Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall Sen’s slope estimator compute changes Pakistan its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It found that has increased at 0.23 °C dec −1 last 62 years, which also higher than average increase. increase more evident region IV V spring 0.63 0.43 respectively, followed by summer autumn. Temperature sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP WHWP mean significant coherences. Overall, influenced multiple interactions of these combinations indicate integrated influence teleconnections can better explain changes. broader over NP + WHWP, Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, PNA), Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, NAO) indices as revealed coherences 0.82, 0.82 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA showed correlation magnitudes 0.44, 0.42 0.20 indicating modulation effect on combined impacts from various represent a considerable advancement accuracy country. These findings implications for policymakers terms planning policies light climate well atmospheric circulation variability.